Broadcom (AVGO) Has Rallied 10 Straight Years in This 344-Day AI-Season Window

Key takeaways

Seasonal window

Broadcom has risen in 10 of 10 years during this 344-day window, averaging 52.93% gains for long positions. The next window begins on Mar 8, 2026, with the stock last trading at $330.48, about 20.0% below its 52-week high of $413.03 and well above its 52-week low of $136.46.^[1] That combination of a powerful historical tailwind and a stock that has already more than doubled off last year’s lows gives traders a clear regime to watch rather than a blank slate.

The 10-year average trend line for this window slopes higher almost the entire way, with only brief pauses. That reflects a pattern where strong years like 2020, 2023, 2024 and 2025, each with gains above 80%, stack on top of more modest but still positive years such as 2017 and 2022. The typical path shows early strength that often accelerates in the middle of the window, then consolidates into the final months rather than giving back gains.

Year-by-year bars that include both peak rallies and worst drawdowns show how much air pockets have accompanied those gains.

Across the decade, average profit of 52.93% masks some violent swings inside the window. In 2020, Broadcom’s best intraperiod move reached 108.86% while the worst drawdown from entry was 37.16%, and in 2022 the stock still finished up 7.93% despite a 26.24% adverse move at one point. Even the standout 2025 window, which closed with an 81.92% gain, saw a 24.9% drawdown along the way. The pattern’s 1.45 TradeWave Ratio and 1.31 Sharpe ratio show that historically the upside has outweighed those air pockets, but the MAE profile makes clear that “up every year” has not meant “smooth every year.”

Two years illustrate the range. In 2016, Broadcom gained 49.3% with almost no downside, as the worst intraperiod move was essentially flat at 0.01% while the best run-up reached 51.79%. In 2018, the stock still finished the window up 17.68%, but only after enduring an 18.92% drawdown from entry before recovering. Add it up and the message is simple: this has been a powerful long-biased regime, but one where patience has often been tested.

History does not guarantee future results, and even in a decade of winning windows, adverse excursions have at times exceeded 20% before the final gain was locked in.

Price and near-term drivers

Broadcom closed Friday at $330.48, down 0.7% on the day, leaving the stock about 20.0% below its 52-week high of $413.03 and well above its 52-week low of $136.46.^[1] The shares have cooled after a blistering 2025 run that saw the stock jump roughly 110% between April and October as investors chased its AI chip story.^[1]

The chart below situates the latest move in its recent multi-month context.

In 2025, Broadcom repeatedly beat expectations as AI demand surged. On Jun 8, 2025, the company reported 20% year-over-year sales growth for its second quarter, helped by AI networking and custom chips.^[2] By October, Forbes noted that the stock had risen about 90% in six months, driven largely by a 71% jump in net income margin tied to AI and infrastructure software strength.^[3]

The AI narrative only intensified into the back half of the year. In September 2025, Reuters reported that Broadcom secured a $10 billion AI chip order and that shares rallied 11% in premarket trading on the news and CEO commentary around the deal.^[13] Later that fall, the company announced a high-profile custom chip partnership tied to OpenAI and supercomputer projects, which helped push the stock another 13% higher in a single session.^[5]

Earnings kept pace with the hype. In October 2025, Broadcom exceeded third-quarter expectations with earnings per share of $1.69 versus $1.66 expected and revenue of $16 billion versus $15.82 billion, with Forbes highlighting that AI advancements were the key driver.^[1] Earlier in the year, second-quarter sales had already reached $15 billion, up 20% year over year, reinforcing the sense that AI was becoming a structural growth engine rather than a one-off spike.^[2]

The market reaction, however, showed that expectations were getting high. In December 2025, Broadcom reported record fourth-quarter revenue and earnings that topped forecasts, but Yahoo Finance and The Wall Street Journal both noted that the stock fell as investors focused on rising costs and questions about how AI-related business would affect future margins.^[4][6] Seeking Alpha later framed the debate as the market “sweating the AI details,” with valuation and the pace of AI sales growth under scrutiny.^[9]

Analysts have largely stayed in Broadcom’s corner. In September 2025, Wall Street firms reaffirmed or upgraded the stock to Buy with higher price targets, citing accelerating AI demand and a strong revenue outlook.^[14] CNBC described Broadcom as “firing on all cylinders” in December 2025, pointing to robust AI chip and networking demand and strong investor appetite for the name.^[10] Even so, with the stock already far above where many of those targets were set, some of that optimism reflects an earlier price regime rather than today’s levels.

On guidance, Broadcom has sketched out an aggressive AI roadmap. Management has talked about AI revenue reaching about $20 billion in fiscal 2025 and potentially $45 billion in fiscal 2026, driven by custom accelerators and high-speed networking.^[1][7] That kind of growth profile helps explain why the stock commands a premium in the semiconductor group, but it also raises the bar for each earnings print as the new seasonal window opens.

Macro and sector backdrop

Broadcom sits at the center of two powerful themes: the semiconductor cycle and the AI buildout. Forbes and other outlets have highlighted how the company is outperforming peers on revenue growth and margins, helped by its mix of custom AI silicon and infrastructure software.^[5] In the broader macro picture, rising AI adoption is pulling forward demand for high-end chips and networking gear, which has been a key tailwind for the stock.^[1]

That positioning cuts both ways. As one of the clearest pure plays on AI infrastructure, Broadcom has become a sentiment barometer for the entire AI complex. When AI enthusiasm is running hot, the stock can move sharply higher on incremental news, as the September 2025 AI deal rally showed.^[13] When investors worry about margins or the sustainability of AI orders, the same leverage can work in reverse, as seen after the record fourth-quarter print that still sent shares lower.^[4][6]

Valuation and expectations into the window

Valuation data in late 2025 coverage suggested that Broadcom was trading at a premium to many semiconductor peers, justified in part by its AI growth and high margins.^[5][9] With the stock still roughly 20.0% off its 52-week high but far above its 52-week low, investors are effectively being asked to pay up for a company that has already delivered several years’ worth of AI rerating in a short span.^[1]

Consensus ratings remain firmly positive, with a Strong Buy stance from analysts and a consensus price target around $450 cited across Forbes and Seeking Alpha coverage.^{[1][2][3][5][14]} Given that those targets were set when the stock was lower, they should be read as a snapshot of earlier optimism rather than a precise roadmap for the next 12 months. The more important question heading into this seasonal window is whether Broadcom can keep hitting or beating its ambitious AI revenue goals without further margin slippage.

On the earnings front, the company has already laid out expectations for AI revenue to climb toward $20 billion in fiscal 2025 and potentially $45 billion in fiscal 2026.^[1][7] Street commentary suggests that investors will be watching not just headline growth but also the mix between custom accelerators, networking, and software, and how that mix affects profitability.^[4][6][9] Any sign that AI orders are bunching, slowing, or coming with lower margins could matter more than the absolute revenue number once the seasonal window is underway.

What to watch as the window opens

For traders tracking this pattern, the first checkpoint is simple: does Broadcom respect the historical bias by staying constructive in the early months of the window, or does it break the 10-for-10 streak quickly. Price action around key support levels near the 50-day moving average of $334.32 and the recent trading band between roughly $327 and $343 will help answer that.^[1]

Earnings and AI headlines will be the main catalysts. Any update that shifts the trajectory of the company’s AI revenue targets toward or away from the $20 billion and $45 billion markers will likely carry outsized weight.^[1][7] Watch how the stock trades not just on the numbers but on commentary about costs, capacity, and customer concentration, especially after the market’s reaction to record revenue in late 2025 showed how sensitive sentiment has become.^[4][6][9]

Volatility inside the window is another key tell. Historically, some of the best years in this pattern have also seen 20% to 30% drawdowns before finishing strong. If the stock sells off sharply on an AI headline or macro wobble but then recovers within the window, that would rhyme with prior cycles. A deep drawdown that fails to bounce, by contrast, would be a clear break from the decade-long script.

Finally, keep an eye on how AI-related news flow and sector sentiment evolve around Broadcom. In September 2025, a single $10 billion AI chip order and CEO reassurance were enough to spark an 11% premarket jump.^[13] If similar AI deal headlines continue to trigger outsized moves during this window, it would reinforce Broadcom’s role as a high-beta proxy on AI infrastructure and could help extend the pattern’s long winning streak. If those headlines start landing with a thud, it may be an early sign that the market is becoming more selective about AI exposure, even in one of the strongest seasonal regimes on Broadcom’s calendar.