NASDAQ Composite
The NASDAQ Composite index includes over 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange, heavily weighted toward technology and growth companies.
The seasonal picture for the NASDAQ Composite splits sharply depending on which lens you use. The last 10 consecutive years paint an increasingly bullish arc: 70% win rate over 30 days, climbing to a remarkable 90% win rate over 90 days with a projected 27% gain to $28,193. But midterm election years tell a starkly different story, showing negative average returns across all three horizons and a sub-50% win rate at 60 days.
That divergence is the key tension to watch. NASDAQ's growth-heavy composition makes it especially sensitive to the policy uncertainty and mid-cycle volatility that historically defines midterm years. With the index currently at $22,695, the $21,720 midterm 30-day target represents meaningful downside risk that the broader trend obscures. Watch political headlines closely.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest NASDAQ Composite may be headed.
Projection as of Mar 10, 2026 from closing price $22,695.95
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for the NASDAQ Composite reflects how the index has historically performed during this same calendar period across prior years. The 80% consecutive win rate means the index closed higher 80% of the time in comparable historical windows, while the midterm election year win rate of 46.2% tells a notably different story for that specific cycle.
When the two bases diverge as they do here, pointing in opposite directions with projected returns of +12.1% and -5.6% respectively, it signals that the election cycle has historically produced meaningfully different conditions than the broader consecutive pattern. The median return is often more useful than the average in these cases, as it is less distorted by outlier years at either extreme.
Seasonal patterns have no mechanism to account for breaking news, earnings surprises, policy shifts, or geopolitical developments. A high win rate does not guarantee a positive outcome in any individual year, and the historical range from -11.5% to +10.2% illustrates how wide actual results can vary. These figures represent statistical tendencies, not forecasts.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one layer of context alongside fundamental analysis, technical signals, and broader macroeconomic conditions. It can help frame expectations and inform how historical tendencies align or conflict with other available information.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how NASDAQ Composite has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 trading days, this pattern has been positive 8 of 10 times with an average return of +2.3%.
Midterm Election Years (13 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 13 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 6 times with an average return of -1.2%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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