Crude Oil (WTI)
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is the primary benchmark for U.S. oil pricing. It is one of the most actively traded commodities in the world.
After a 3.87% pullback, seasonal history flashes a notably bullish signal for crude oil. The midterm election year pattern stands out sharply: over the next 30 days, WTI has posted gains 80% of the time, projecting a target of $110.20, a 12.45% advance from current levels. That compares favorably to the broader 10-year baseline, where the same window produces only a 60% win rate and a modest 0.56% average return.
The divergence between these two datasets is the key story. Midterm years consistently outperform the general seasonal trend across all three time horizons, with 60-day and 90-day win rates of 60% and 70% respectively. Traders should watch whether the current weakness holds near support, as midterm cycles historically treat dips as buying opportunities rather than trend reversals.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest Crude Oil (WTI) may be headed.
Projection as of Mar 10, 2026 from closing price $87.38
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data reveals how Crude Oil (WTI) has historically performed during this same calendar window across past years. The consecutive pattern shows a 50% win rate with an average return of -0.3%, while the midterm election year pattern shows a notably stronger 60% win rate and an average return of +8.8%, meaning Crude Oil (WTI) finished higher in 60% of those comparable years.
When both the consecutive and midterm election year bases point in the same direction, the signal carries more consistency across different analytical lenses. The median return of +10.1% for the midterm election year pattern is often more informative than the average, as it reduces distortion from outlier years like the historical worst of -27.8%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies only and cannot account for geopolitical developments, supply disruptions, policy shifts, or macroeconomic surprises that frequently drive commodity prices. A 60% win rate still means the outcome moved in the opposite direction 40% of the time, and no projection guarantees a specific result in any given year.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one layer of context alongside fundamental supply and demand analysis, technical price levels, and broader portfolio risk considerations. Seasonal tendencies can inform expectations about timing and historical probability, but they represent just one input among many.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how Crude Oil (WTI) has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 trading days, this pattern has been positive 5 of 10 times with an average return of -0.3%.
Midterm Election Years (10 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 10 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 6 times with an average return of +8.8%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
Latest News
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