S&P 500
The S&P 500 index tracks 500 of the largest U.S. publicly traded companies, weighted by market capitalization. It is widely regarded as the best single gauge of the U.S. equity market.
The recent 10-year seasonal record for this index is notably bullish, with 60- and 90-day windows both showing 80% win rates and projected gains of 11% and 24% respectively from current levels. But midterm election year history tells a sharply different story: the 90-day outlook flips negative, with only 45.8% of periods finishing higher and an average loss of 0.80%, implying a pullback toward $6,340.
This divergence is the critical tension to watch. The S&P 500 tends to struggle mid-year in midterm cycles as political uncertainty peaks before autumn rallies typically emerge. Traders should monitor whether the broad 10-year momentum overrides the election-cycle headwind, particularly around the 60-day mark where the split is most pronounced.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest S&P 500 may be headed.
Projection as of Mar 10, 2026 from closing price $6,795.99
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for the S&P 500 reflects how the index has historically performed during this same calendar period across prior years. The consecutive pattern shows an 80% win rate, meaning the index closed higher 60 days later in 80% of comparable historical instances, with an average return of +1.7%.
The two bases here point in opposite directions, which is meaningful context. The consecutive pattern suggests relative strength, while the midterm election year pattern shows a 54.2% win rate and an average return of -0.3%, indicating the election cycle has historically created different conditions. Median returns are often more reliable than averages because they are less distorted by outlier years.
Seasonal patterns carry important limitations that users should understand. They cannot account for breaking news, policy shifts, earnings surprises, or geopolitical developments that may occur within the projection window. A high win rate reflects historical frequency, not a guarantee of any specific outcome.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one layer of analysis alongside fundamentals, technical indicators, and macroeconomic context. When the two bases diverge as they do here, that tension itself becomes useful information, signaling that historical precedent is less uniform and that other analytical inputs carry added weight in forming expectations.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how S&P 500 has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 trading days, this pattern has been positive 8 of 10 times with an average return of +1.7%.
Midterm Election Years (24 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 24 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 13 times with an average return of -0.3%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
Explore More
Other markets with seasonal analysis and recent pattern articles.